Tuesday, December 30, 2008
2009 Prognostications For Canada, Mexico, Central and South America
Canada in 2009 is going to be in much the same boat as the U.S. NAFTA trade will make things a little more difficult. The Canadians feel the NAFTA trade agreement has hurt them costing many jobs over the last several years. With everything tightening up on a global basis there will be more jobs falling to the NAFTA Trade with the U.S. and Mexico pushing and placing more trade where they can under the agreement. The Canadian economy is heavily tied to the U.S. auto industry. If the U.S. auto industry takes a big hit this year and folds one company or even if one company is absorbed by another it will mean big job losses for 2009. If global oil prices remain low the energy sector for Canada will also do poorly and perhaps even slow the pursuit of other energy sources and its technology keeping those industries from growing and further costing potential job growth.
Mexico will have many of the same job problems as Canada in 2009. There was hope within the government that the migration to the U.S. would slow down. They felt as the young of Mexico matured to the working age the country could start to provide most of them with jobs. What was once hoped for has been dashed by the loss of businesses from Mexico to other lands in the corporate chase of cheep labor. The many factories that were once to provide jobs are now closed. At the same time the Mexican oil market which funds much of the country's operations is suffering the same pricing problems the rest of the oil rich nations are feeling. In addition, internal strife within the government over the drug cartels is forcing them to take their eye off the ball and focus less on the needs of the country and more on keeping the cartels from gaining control of the government.
South America as a whole will not do well in 2009. Brazil will be the shining exception. Their numbers will retreat a bit but on the whole they will do well. Venezuela will have oil pricing problems and its big mouth president will have much less money to play big shot with. Investments in Stocks south of the border except for Brazil will be much riskier in the coming year. In the overall South America will suffer the same economic turmoil that will be seen around the globe.
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Mexico will have many of the same job problems as Canada in 2009. There was hope within the government that the migration to the U.S. would slow down. They felt as the young of Mexico matured to the working age the country could start to provide most of them with jobs. What was once hoped for has been dashed by the loss of businesses from Mexico to other lands in the corporate chase of cheep labor. The many factories that were once to provide jobs are now closed. At the same time the Mexican oil market which funds much of the country's operations is suffering the same pricing problems the rest of the oil rich nations are feeling. In addition, internal strife within the government over the drug cartels is forcing them to take their eye off the ball and focus less on the needs of the country and more on keeping the cartels from gaining control of the government.
South America as a whole will not do well in 2009. Brazil will be the shining exception. Their numbers will retreat a bit but on the whole they will do well. Venezuela will have oil pricing problems and its big mouth president will have much less money to play big shot with. Investments in Stocks south of the border except for Brazil will be much riskier in the coming year. In the overall South America will suffer the same economic turmoil that will be seen around the globe.
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Sunday, December 21, 2008
2009: The Upcoming Articles Containing New Year Prognostications
It has been traditional for me to publish my prognostications for the coming year at the end of the each current year. I would like to continue that practice but with the new format of theRed Dragon Letter will force me to provide the information over several days. I will start just prior to the New Year and will carry over into the first week of January in 2009.
The titles of the articles will be as follows:
The U.S. Economy
Canada, Mexico, South and Central America
President Obama: The First year
China, India, Russia
Japan and the Pacific Basin
England, Europe, European Union
The Mid-East
Korea, Venezuela,
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The titles of the articles will be as follows:
The U.S. Economy
Canada, Mexico, South and Central America
President Obama: The First year
China, India, Russia
Japan and the Pacific Basin
England, Europe, European Union
The Mid-East
Korea, Venezuela,
Send us your comments on this article
Saturday, December 20, 2008
What To Do With Our Enemies
Considering everyone who disagrees with your philosophy an enemy, will eventually cause you to stand alone against the world. That does not mean that those considered to be enemies are not enemies but it does mean philosophically that with out a strong strategic plan such a position can cause much grief in the long run. Those who disagree with us, even strongly, may not be enemies at all. If their philosophy and ours is not the same it does not mean we can not get along. However, it does mean one should choose their enemies with great care. And for those who fall into the category of enemy we need to have a method of conveying to them that we wish them no harm as long as they are mindful of our rules as we will be of theirs. This leads us to the point where there has been much discussion over the last several months about talking to the enemy with out the appropriate protocols.
If we try to think out of the box on this question the answer is why not try. Even between enemies there is always some element, condition or rule that is common ground for discussion. If the common ground is addressed by both parties then discussion can begin in a most informal way. Leaders need to tell each other where they stand on issues and why the take such a stand. Discussions of this nature cannot begin about the line drawn in the sand but must begin on the areas and arenas the two positions can agree on. From simple and casual agreements can grow a platform of understanding enabling other issues with more tenuous roots to take a position for discussion at the table.
As the discussions continue there needs to be mutual confirmation on the points of understanding. These are not the same as points of agreement but rather are the points of disagreement. They are the issues where there is a possibility of future adjustments on each side which may make for an agreement on the specific point. This is the method for building a ladder for exiting the pit of disagreement. It is built one rung at a time over a period of time. At this point in the discussions each side knows what it cannot agree on. It also knows what the other side will not agree on. This is the basis for discussion at another time in an informal manner and with formal plans for discussion. The end goal here is not to win all the chips from the other participant but to find a way of making the areas of disagreement less contentious.
Of course there is always an adversary who chooses to be belligerent and disrespectful. For the other person at the table it is imperative that they impress upon the adversary how necessary it is for everyone to respectfully participate. If the other side cannot find a point on which to effectively participate it is then time to make that adversary an offer they cannot refuse and then leave advising of the open opportunity to continue the discussion at a different time.
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If we try to think out of the box on this question the answer is why not try. Even between enemies there is always some element, condition or rule that is common ground for discussion. If the common ground is addressed by both parties then discussion can begin in a most informal way. Leaders need to tell each other where they stand on issues and why the take such a stand. Discussions of this nature cannot begin about the line drawn in the sand but must begin on the areas and arenas the two positions can agree on. From simple and casual agreements can grow a platform of understanding enabling other issues with more tenuous roots to take a position for discussion at the table.
As the discussions continue there needs to be mutual confirmation on the points of understanding. These are not the same as points of agreement but rather are the points of disagreement. They are the issues where there is a possibility of future adjustments on each side which may make for an agreement on the specific point. This is the method for building a ladder for exiting the pit of disagreement. It is built one rung at a time over a period of time. At this point in the discussions each side knows what it cannot agree on. It also knows what the other side will not agree on. This is the basis for discussion at another time in an informal manner and with formal plans for discussion. The end goal here is not to win all the chips from the other participant but to find a way of making the areas of disagreement less contentious.
Of course there is always an adversary who chooses to be belligerent and disrespectful. For the other person at the table it is imperative that they impress upon the adversary how necessary it is for everyone to respectfully participate. If the other side cannot find a point on which to effectively participate it is then time to make that adversary an offer they cannot refuse and then leave advising of the open opportunity to continue the discussion at a different time.
Send us your comments on this article
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Is China Back In The Shadows?
China has been very quiet since just after the 2008 Olympics. With all attention focused on them for months before and during the games within a week after the games ended they fell quiet. What the rest of the world was unaware of was the Chinese economy was already slowing down. In 2007 they had orchestrated a strategic economic slowdown to realign their activities relative to their super hot economy. They were targeting GDP to bring it back to approximately 9% annual growth. What was not calculated was the ratcheting back in some ways had a mind of its own. Cutting factories back or shutting some down completely had uncalculated and compounding effects on the part of the economy that was supposed to continue working. As the world economy started to dim a bit there were less orders for Chinese industry. When the financial world fell apart there was a severe decrease in new orders. It is a problem that continues to this day.
As of now the probable GDP figures for 2009 will come in around 5.8% for the year. This is already bringing back the China of the past. The first and the most important condition is the government's preoccupation with civil unrest. The government is always fearful of unrest in the streets and in the rural communities. They view civil unrest as having the strong potential toward an attempt to overthrow the government. Now with the economy in a shrinking mode the fear of the displaced and educated worker who no longer has a job can represent possible descent. The government knows the worker does not want to go back to the farm. They also know the farm workers want to leave the farm and come to the cities to work. To quell any outbreaks and to prevent another major incident they have already started to train military troops to be able to handle any civil operation as soon as trouble arises.
The second condition is that China will have to spend a considerable amount of money to keep the peace in the streets. They also have to provide assistance to the newly unemployed. That will take a considerable amount of money out of the government coffers. It will become problematic for China to continue to function in the two way traffic of world trade. China counted on the purchases of the U.S. to keep their cash flow going which was used to power their growth. The U.S. on the other hand counted on China to continue to fund its debt by purchasing U.S. Government securities. Current conditions have cut the certainty of that two way street. China has already told the U.S. it will stop continuing to fund our debt if we do not get our finances in order. This is the first time all the leverage is on the side of the Chinese. If they choose to stop purchasing U.S. Notes the whole world could be in for a world wide depression. The only leverage we might have is that no one wants to see that scenario come about.
The question for the day is what should the U.S. do work with China in an even handed way for both sides?
Send us your comments on this article
As of now the probable GDP figures for 2009 will come in around 5.8% for the year. This is already bringing back the China of the past. The first and the most important condition is the government's preoccupation with civil unrest. The government is always fearful of unrest in the streets and in the rural communities. They view civil unrest as having the strong potential toward an attempt to overthrow the government. Now with the economy in a shrinking mode the fear of the displaced and educated worker who no longer has a job can represent possible descent. The government knows the worker does not want to go back to the farm. They also know the farm workers want to leave the farm and come to the cities to work. To quell any outbreaks and to prevent another major incident they have already started to train military troops to be able to handle any civil operation as soon as trouble arises.
The second condition is that China will have to spend a considerable amount of money to keep the peace in the streets. They also have to provide assistance to the newly unemployed. That will take a considerable amount of money out of the government coffers. It will become problematic for China to continue to function in the two way traffic of world trade. China counted on the purchases of the U.S. to keep their cash flow going which was used to power their growth. The U.S. on the other hand counted on China to continue to fund its debt by purchasing U.S. Government securities. Current conditions have cut the certainty of that two way street. China has already told the U.S. it will stop continuing to fund our debt if we do not get our finances in order. This is the first time all the leverage is on the side of the Chinese. If they choose to stop purchasing U.S. Notes the whole world could be in for a world wide depression. The only leverage we might have is that no one wants to see that scenario come about.
The question for the day is what should the U.S. do work with China in an even handed way for both sides?
Send us your comments on this article
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Let Me Tell You About GDP for 2009
World wide GDP for 2009 will be negative. The average will come in at about -3.62% for the total year. The second and third quarters will be the worst. The comeback will be slow and the positive average range for world wide GDP will not arrive until the end of 2010 at the earliest.
The European Union as a whole will be: -3.2%
England and Ireland will come in at: -3.8% each
Spain and Italy will come in at: -3.5% each
China will be positive at: +5.8% but that number is six points off the 2007 range and probably 3 points off 2008. That number can mean serious internal problems for China which, if it turns to civil unrest, the rest of the world's numbers could go lower.
India will average: -1.6% for the entire year.
Russia will average: -3.6% for the entire year.
Japan will average - 2.9% with no sign of full rebound by the years end.
South America (as a whole) will be -4.0% for the entire year.
The United States will average: -3.4% on the low side and -4.7% on the high side as the price of oil will determine where the average will fall.
Oil will be the big variant in the process. The higher oil prices are, the better the GDP numbers will be in oil rich countries but it that will drive down the numbers in the countries importing the oil. This will mean as the mid-year approaches we will have to take a look at the oil impact on the GDP formula for the balance of the year and perhaps make some projection changes.
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The European Union as a whole will be: -3.2%
England and Ireland will come in at: -3.8% each
Spain and Italy will come in at: -3.5% each
China will be positive at: +5.8% but that number is six points off the 2007 range and probably 3 points off 2008. That number can mean serious internal problems for China which, if it turns to civil unrest, the rest of the world's numbers could go lower.
India will average: -1.6% for the entire year.
Russia will average: -3.6% for the entire year.
Japan will average - 2.9% with no sign of full rebound by the years end.
South America (as a whole) will be -4.0% for the entire year.
The United States will average: -3.4% on the low side and -4.7% on the high side as the price of oil will determine where the average will fall.
Oil will be the big variant in the process. The higher oil prices are, the better the GDP numbers will be in oil rich countries but it that will drive down the numbers in the countries importing the oil. This will mean as the mid-year approaches we will have to take a look at the oil impact on the GDP formula for the balance of the year and perhaps make some projection changes.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Oil Wars Will Begin Soon
The price of oil is down for the U.S. right now but the oil producing countries are not quite as happy over the new price levels. They are feeling the pain of the loss of billions of dollars a month in oil revenue. Those huge revenues are the backbone of their wealth and power. These countries are now scrambling to pay for the day to day operations of their nations because the revenue from oil is the key to their wealth. Because of this situation most of the oil producing countries will continue looking for ways to boost the cost of a barrel of oil. The oil is not just for money it has become a multi-political high value tool for power expansion and geopolitical positioning.
As the current world financial and economic situations smooth themselves out over time and the nations get back on a better footing they will start to re-compete for commodities. Of all the commodities in play oil will be the item of power and economic change. It will become the reason for undeclared war between nations as the value rises and the supply tightens. It will become the product on which to make money from every direction. The nations in play will use covert actions and activities to reach their goals. Situations such as this will make everything relating to oil a target. Ships, oil transmission lines, refineries, storage facilities, and most anything else you can think of will become targets for strategic covert activities of nations as well as thugs of every type who will receive huge amounts of ransom money just to allow the oil to flow freely.
The wars will start low key but will quickly build in action and reaction to staged events from all sides. As an example thugs start to demand ransom for allowing a pipeline to flow freely. The ransom will be paid but the nation who made the payment will send its agents to dispatch these thugs. At the same time the nations who wish to use their oil as leverage to power will start to use covert operations against their competitor nations. The competitor nations will use their covert agents to reverse the situations. It becomes sort of the cold war again but oil not warheads is what is in play. As the process goes forward the antagonistic nations will employ rogue thug style rings in a manner of the fifteenth century privateers on the high seas. In the long run the end result will be the direct conflict of nation against nation and of course the ever escalating cost of oil and energy products.
There is only one way to stop this disaster from slowly rolling up and boiling over. That way is to pursue alternative energy at every level until a better and more efficient and environmentally friendly replacement for oil can be discovered and produced.
Send us your comments on this article
As the current world financial and economic situations smooth themselves out over time and the nations get back on a better footing they will start to re-compete for commodities. Of all the commodities in play oil will be the item of power and economic change. It will become the reason for undeclared war between nations as the value rises and the supply tightens. It will become the product on which to make money from every direction. The nations in play will use covert actions and activities to reach their goals. Situations such as this will make everything relating to oil a target. Ships, oil transmission lines, refineries, storage facilities, and most anything else you can think of will become targets for strategic covert activities of nations as well as thugs of every type who will receive huge amounts of ransom money just to allow the oil to flow freely.
The wars will start low key but will quickly build in action and reaction to staged events from all sides. As an example thugs start to demand ransom for allowing a pipeline to flow freely. The ransom will be paid but the nation who made the payment will send its agents to dispatch these thugs. At the same time the nations who wish to use their oil as leverage to power will start to use covert operations against their competitor nations. The competitor nations will use their covert agents to reverse the situations. It becomes sort of the cold war again but oil not warheads is what is in play. As the process goes forward the antagonistic nations will employ rogue thug style rings in a manner of the fifteenth century privateers on the high seas. In the long run the end result will be the direct conflict of nation against nation and of course the ever escalating cost of oil and energy products.
There is only one way to stop this disaster from slowly rolling up and boiling over. That way is to pursue alternative energy at every level until a better and more efficient and environmentally friendly replacement for oil can be discovered and produced.
Send us your comments on this article
Monday, December 15, 2008
"Dark Is The Future " Said Yoda
America's future may start to read similar to the disclaimers found at the bottom of financial fund marketing material which state "past performance is not a guarantee of future earnings". Next year performance on the world wide stage will be down everywhere. In some regions as well as several specific countries there will be more down spiral than others. The truth is, no one will escape this pullback and for some the problems may be devastating to say the least. For 2009 the GDP for the globe will be down by an average of -3.62%. The U.S. will see a -3.4% at a minimum and as much as -4.7% on the high side.
China which was to be the place where all the money was going to come from is already protecting its bankroll by cutting back on all purchasing fronts. The problem in China and with the rest of the emerging world is economic downturns cause dramatic internal confrontations and unrest within the populace. At present this is China's biggest fear. In the U.S. unrest may take a turn in the streets but that is part of the American political process. There is little chance of anarchy coming to power from the U.S. streets. What one can expect is change everywhere. Change will come because the end reasoning will evolve to present the best process for economic readjustment. That process will turn out to be allowing the markets and economics to function freely and let the good stand and the bad fall. It is the world of Darwin and until there is light on all this coming darkness it will take time for us to jump to light speed. As of right now "Dark is the future" said Yoda.
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China which was to be the place where all the money was going to come from is already protecting its bankroll by cutting back on all purchasing fronts. The problem in China and with the rest of the emerging world is economic downturns cause dramatic internal confrontations and unrest within the populace. At present this is China's biggest fear. In the U.S. unrest may take a turn in the streets but that is part of the American political process. There is little chance of anarchy coming to power from the U.S. streets. What one can expect is change everywhere. Change will come because the end reasoning will evolve to present the best process for economic readjustment. That process will turn out to be allowing the markets and economics to function freely and let the good stand and the bad fall. It is the world of Darwin and until there is light on all this coming darkness it will take time for us to jump to light speed. As of right now "Dark is the future" said Yoda.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Story Behind The New Belligerence Of Russia
On the same day that the U.S. announced its new President elect there were anti- American demonstrations in Moscow. The demonstrators said they no longer chose to be dictated to by America. The Russians indicated they would put their missiles on the Russian borders to counter the new American missiles scheduled to go into Poland. Without some knowledge of history and some insight into the behind the scenes stories in Russia one could not understand what in the world is going on.
To start with the Russians do not like being second best at anything. Having been behind the U.S. on the power curve for a number of years they were just getting their act together which was greased by the enormous cash flow from the recent high cost of energy. With the current price of oil and natural gas severely depressed, relative to the price highs of July of 2008, the cash flow that was supporting their rebuilding has come almost to a halt. Expect economic problems and a GDP of -3.6% for 2009. This situation, in the Russian eyes and mind, makes them look foolish. The government can not take the blame for the problem so it must be part of a yet to be uncovered American plot. These recent street demonstrations were designed to make it appear as if spontaneous but in reality were government sanctioned and organized to take full advantage of the media. The idea was to make it appear as if the Russian populace was up in arms with the U.S.
Part of the problem is both the Russian government and citizens want to act capitalistic yet choose to function as a communist nation when it comes to ideology. For example the recent maneuvers off the Venezuelan coast. That is a poke at the U.S. to tell us they can come to the Americas at will and they are making friends of the communists here. The joint war games were also used to point out the newly upgraded Russian war ships. The message conveyed was their reach is growing and they will act with impunity as with their recent invasion of a former soviet state. The idea there was if the U.S. could invade Iraq without direct provocation then they can surely do the same and did so to make the point.
The last point addresses the hopes of Moscow to join the OPEC gang so they have more leverage in pricing and setting pumping limits on oil. They bring oil fields and natural gas to the table which may help OPEC leverage their pricing from time to time. With Russian oil as part of the OPEC play Moscow has a better shot at pressuring the council to stabilize pricing for their benefit. The Moscow edge in this play is they have the hard muscle that has been missing from this arena for the last thirty years. In the past when production was cut not all of the members went along with the cuts. Moscow has the secret muscle to apply the pressure to cut off the overages that are shipped in secret by the internal OPEC cheaters. That may be the chip that gets them as seat at the table. It also puts them in a position of new power and with legitimate geopolitical stature.
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To start with the Russians do not like being second best at anything. Having been behind the U.S. on the power curve for a number of years they were just getting their act together which was greased by the enormous cash flow from the recent high cost of energy. With the current price of oil and natural gas severely depressed, relative to the price highs of July of 2008, the cash flow that was supporting their rebuilding has come almost to a halt. Expect economic problems and a GDP of -3.6% for 2009. This situation, in the Russian eyes and mind, makes them look foolish. The government can not take the blame for the problem so it must be part of a yet to be uncovered American plot. These recent street demonstrations were designed to make it appear as if spontaneous but in reality were government sanctioned and organized to take full advantage of the media. The idea was to make it appear as if the Russian populace was up in arms with the U.S.
Part of the problem is both the Russian government and citizens want to act capitalistic yet choose to function as a communist nation when it comes to ideology. For example the recent maneuvers off the Venezuelan coast. That is a poke at the U.S. to tell us they can come to the Americas at will and they are making friends of the communists here. The joint war games were also used to point out the newly upgraded Russian war ships. The message conveyed was their reach is growing and they will act with impunity as with their recent invasion of a former soviet state. The idea there was if the U.S. could invade Iraq without direct provocation then they can surely do the same and did so to make the point.
The last point addresses the hopes of Moscow to join the OPEC gang so they have more leverage in pricing and setting pumping limits on oil. They bring oil fields and natural gas to the table which may help OPEC leverage their pricing from time to time. With Russian oil as part of the OPEC play Moscow has a better shot at pressuring the council to stabilize pricing for their benefit. The Moscow edge in this play is they have the hard muscle that has been missing from this arena for the last thirty years. In the past when production was cut not all of the members went along with the cuts. Moscow has the secret muscle to apply the pressure to cut off the overages that are shipped in secret by the internal OPEC cheaters. That may be the chip that gets them as seat at the table. It also puts them in a position of new power and with legitimate geopolitical stature.
Send us your comments on this article
Friday, December 5, 2008
The Real Unemployment Numbers
The real numbers are in the unemployment labor report U6. It is the information based on the data collected for the jobs report except it is not sanitized. These real numbers are difficult to get because they are never in the offering. The report includes marginally attached workers, part-timers who cannot find full time work and the officially unemployed who are not counted because they have run out of unemployment insurance and have fallen off the charts.
Based on the governments numbers in October the job loss year to date was 1.2 million jobs or an unemployment rate of 6.5%. On the U6 report the unemployment rate for October was 11.8% of all workers. The government numbers released today for November showed an additional 533,000 jobs lost thus bringing the official unemployment number up to 6.9%. Though I have not yet seen the new U6 report my calculations indicate the report will call the unemployment rate at 12.5%. That is a 5.5% delta and it makes all the difference in the world. Using the standard reporting numbers the 6.9% provides a bad showing for the economy but you can see why the real numbers which are from U6 are not used. Such numbers would bring down the house. Then everyone would be in the streets screaming for action, that is, if the truth be told.
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Based on the governments numbers in October the job loss year to date was 1.2 million jobs or an unemployment rate of 6.5%. On the U6 report the unemployment rate for October was 11.8% of all workers. The government numbers released today for November showed an additional 533,000 jobs lost thus bringing the official unemployment number up to 6.9%. Though I have not yet seen the new U6 report my calculations indicate the report will call the unemployment rate at 12.5%. That is a 5.5% delta and it makes all the difference in the world. Using the standard reporting numbers the 6.9% provides a bad showing for the economy but you can see why the real numbers which are from U6 are not used. Such numbers would bring down the house. Then everyone would be in the streets screaming for action, that is, if the truth be told.
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Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Pin The Tail On The Donkey Markets
The rational of the present markets are tantamount to the game pin the tail on the donkey. There is no rational to the wild swings in the market. Good news is good for only a few hours at best and then it seems to fade. The momentary good news makes the markets go up and then as if the depression medication stopped working stockholders sell the market down and it crashes. The true problem is none of us truly know what good news is anymore. Emotions are running too high and that makes for foolish decision making. The only safe places for your money, if you can really call them safe, are the FDIC secured Certificates of Deposit and Treasuries either as a direct purchase or a fund. Unless you are into betting the farm, which means no one will ever be able to deter your need to take a chance, the best thing is to stay on the side line until the market finds its true bottom and the upward momentum is rational.
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Monday, December 1, 2008
Trying To Thwart The Next 911 Attack
Anyone who believes that Homeland Security in the U.S. will be able to thwart a 9/11 level attack does not understand just what has not been accomplished in the last seven years. Our ports are still open enough to enable any of several attack scenarios to come about. If we do not even consider an aircraft based assault as a means of attack there are still fuel depots, refineries, transit systems, bridges, tunnels, power grids, gas lines, and nuclear plants with high levels of vulnerability. A terrorist ground assault against any of the above cited target types could cause massive amounts of death and significant destruction.
I believe the current attacks in India are a form of test run to see what it takes to launch a coordinated series of ground assaults against a wide range of strategic targets. What we have seen in India will not be the type of targets chosen for attack within the U.S. The terrorists will not test, in other lands, against the target types they may have selected to use within the U.S. To do that would alert our defenses as to the type of attacks we will see. Such an act would tell us what was coming and one can defend much more effectively if it is known what type of attack must be faced.
What was demonstrated in India over the last several days is that any attack within the U.S. will address multiple sites and a wide range of assault tactics. Strategic sites in densely populated areas will be the strike zones. The time has come for Homeland Security to start working much more heavily on tightening up our defenses in these critical zones. In response to the India attacks most of the major U.S. cities will start to develop tactics to address high-rise standoff attacks and large hostage scenarios. Though this is a necessary response, such attacks, if they come, will be diversionary to cause our defense mechanisms to shift both focus and resources providing easier openings for the terrorists at other strategic points. Any large scale attack launched against the U.S. will be multi pronged and determined to be greater than 9/11 in scope as well as the damage and death inflicted.
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I believe the current attacks in India are a form of test run to see what it takes to launch a coordinated series of ground assaults against a wide range of strategic targets. What we have seen in India will not be the type of targets chosen for attack within the U.S. The terrorists will not test, in other lands, against the target types they may have selected to use within the U.S. To do that would alert our defenses as to the type of attacks we will see. Such an act would tell us what was coming and one can defend much more effectively if it is known what type of attack must be faced.
What was demonstrated in India over the last several days is that any attack within the U.S. will address multiple sites and a wide range of assault tactics. Strategic sites in densely populated areas will be the strike zones. The time has come for Homeland Security to start working much more heavily on tightening up our defenses in these critical zones. In response to the India attacks most of the major U.S. cities will start to develop tactics to address high-rise standoff attacks and large hostage scenarios. Though this is a necessary response, such attacks, if they come, will be diversionary to cause our defense mechanisms to shift both focus and resources providing easier openings for the terrorists at other strategic points. Any large scale attack launched against the U.S. will be multi pronged and determined to be greater than 9/11 in scope as well as the damage and death inflicted.
Send us your comments on this article
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