Wednesday, January 18, 2012
New Spy Agency Will Be Announced By The U.S. State Department
The U.S. State department will soon announce a new spy agency to work under its jurisdiction in an antiterrorism capacity. It will work with friendly powers and others to fend off terrorism at all levels. It will use a matrix of businesses based in other countries as the first line contact. It will be a bureau of counterterrorism but its exact role is yet to be identified. The State Department is making this move to stream line the movement of information directly to department channels skipping the need for CIA over site.
The new bureau will make use of connections the other spy agencies currently have limited access to. The business matrix will bring more players into the mix. This will not be just to spy but to identify bumps in the night that the other agencies are not positioned to identify or explore. The hopes are that the overall operation of the bureau will be able to have a more sensitive touch and be able to identify very small tremors that, here to for, have gone undetected.
Though this is a new bureau it will not need additional funding. It will use funding already in place for a different office which will not come into being. The hopes for this new outfit are that it will be more sensitive to the antiterrorism tremors when they rise. It is also anticipated the new bureau will accelerate response to issues as they unfold instead of waiting for the next days briefing. There has been no date set for the official announcement but it should come about in the next two months.
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The new bureau will make use of connections the other spy agencies currently have limited access to. The business matrix will bring more players into the mix. This will not be just to spy but to identify bumps in the night that the other agencies are not positioned to identify or explore. The hopes are that the overall operation of the bureau will be able to have a more sensitive touch and be able to identify very small tremors that, here to for, have gone undetected.
Though this is a new bureau it will not need additional funding. It will use funding already in place for a different office which will not come into being. The hopes for this new outfit are that it will be more sensitive to the antiterrorism tremors when they rise. It is also anticipated the new bureau will accelerate response to issues as they unfold instead of waiting for the next days briefing. There has been no date set for the official announcement but it should come about in the next two months.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Digging Out Of The Energy Hole
U.S. oil output is growing dramatically as the oil fields continue to be opened and produce at new levels. The oil fields in Canada are also producing better. There is considerable expansion of the oil producing sites in both countries. New oil production as well as expanded levels of natural gas and biofuels output will bring down the importation of energy for the U.S. from 50 % in 2005 to about 20% by 2017. These numbers may be even greater if the economy picks up and the demand for oil drives the production platforms even harder.
One of the truly important results of this new energy offensive is that the drive to expand the oil exploration will continue to build. The biofuels and natural gas will see the same expansion. The total up side here is that by 2020 we will see the at least 90% of all our energy needs will come from the U.S. and Canada. The other up side is, if need, in 2020 we would be able to produce 100% of the energy we need if we has to do so.
There is also a down side to this play. Past experience shows that once we can secure the energy we need we stop looking for other ways to create the energy we need. That will tend to slow down the solar, wind, geothermal, demand and therefore severely slow the research to make these other sources more productive. The search for a true energy replacement source will slide off the visible scale and in thirty years we will still be where we are today in that search. Congress and the president need to make this a priority research project. Sort of a new moon project with all the support that can be mustered from the public tot make it happen.
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One of the truly important results of this new energy offensive is that the drive to expand the oil exploration will continue to build. The biofuels and natural gas will see the same expansion. The total up side here is that by 2020 we will see the at least 90% of all our energy needs will come from the U.S. and Canada. The other up side is, if need, in 2020 we would be able to produce 100% of the energy we need if we has to do so.
There is also a down side to this play. Past experience shows that once we can secure the energy we need we stop looking for other ways to create the energy we need. That will tend to slow down the solar, wind, geothermal, demand and therefore severely slow the research to make these other sources more productive. The search for a true energy replacement source will slide off the visible scale and in thirty years we will still be where we are today in that search. Congress and the president need to make this a priority research project. Sort of a new moon project with all the support that can be mustered from the public tot make it happen.
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Monday, January 16, 2012
The European Union Will Loose Mambers By the End Of 2012
The European Union is starting to settle on the necessary rules that the member countries must now follow. The rules will tighten up financial issues and the financial reporting which in turn will make it harder for countries to fudge their numbers. Though this is good for most of the countries it is bad for a few. The rules will make meeting the financial thresholds very difficult for the countries with smaller GDP numbers. It will also create situations where several of the countries are in positions that it will be impossible to meet expectations under most any circumstances. Even with assistance form other countries the final numbers may be too large to overcome.
In that case there is speculation that the Chinese will lend the money if the receive some concessions from the WTO. The WTO would have to be convinced by the European Union but the Union feels the demands from the Chinese for concessions are too big and would make the WTO drop the demands on the items and goals the Chinese had promised to take care when they joined the organization. There are still many issues the Chinese have left open and most of Europe and the world would like to see these requirements met soon. To that end the Chinese are holding out the loans as the leverage to get what they want. On the other hand the European Union is somewhat unsure if the loans will make the big difference the countries in jeopardy think it will.
If the European Union fails to support the requests of the Chinese at least two of the countries will leave the EU by the end of 2012. They will leave the EU because they will then no longer be required to follow the rules of the EU and it will allow the countries to run their printing presses to help pay off their debts. This will cause strong inflation in these countries but some see no other way out. If the exit plan works there may be more bailouts in 2013.
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In that case there is speculation that the Chinese will lend the money if the receive some concessions from the WTO. The WTO would have to be convinced by the European Union but the Union feels the demands from the Chinese for concessions are too big and would make the WTO drop the demands on the items and goals the Chinese had promised to take care when they joined the organization. There are still many issues the Chinese have left open and most of Europe and the world would like to see these requirements met soon. To that end the Chinese are holding out the loans as the leverage to get what they want. On the other hand the European Union is somewhat unsure if the loans will make the big difference the countries in jeopardy think it will.
If the European Union fails to support the requests of the Chinese at least two of the countries will leave the EU by the end of 2012. They will leave the EU because they will then no longer be required to follow the rules of the EU and it will allow the countries to run their printing presses to help pay off their debts. This will cause strong inflation in these countries but some see no other way out. If the exit plan works there may be more bailouts in 2013.
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
World Wide Economics are Creating Worldwide Political Instability
It is no secret that the political situation all around the world is having its shaky moments. Europe is in a strong pull back economically which will change the political outlook for Greece in the form of another new government. Italy has a government that is not stable even when everything is going well. Some of these countries will have their credit ratings downgraded shortly. Europe including the U.K. is headed for a recession at best. France is also potentially in line to have its credit downgraded. The weak governments of the European Union will see a shift to the left and is some cases more radicalization, in the governments and in the citizenry, than we have seen in the last twenty five years. This will have a great effect on the economy of the U.S. and the international politics and policies of the U.S. Protectionism will abound on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
At the same time the Chinese government is due for a change in guard by the middle of this year. At present its economy has slowed down and many workers have been sent back to the farm until the economy gets back on track. The problem is the economy is strongly based on U.S. and E.U. commerce. Chinese sales to these two areas will fall by a considerable amount in the next eighteen months. This is one of the biggest fears the Chinese government has because the fear of rebellion as it is almost always secretly present. A Failing economy with a GDP falling to three percent, as some have projected, could mean a cataclysmic event is in the making. Such an event would certainly damage almost every economy on the planet.
The U.S. will have not only economic problems but tied to the economy will be the political conflict due to the upcoming elections of November 2012. Politically there will be no problems solved on the home front allowing the economic problems more time to grow and become harder to repair. The part of the political stage that will show up will call for and get defensive trade barriers against Europe and many other countries. This in turn will lead to trade barriers against U.S. products in other countries. Those standing in the wings such as Japan, Russia, India and all of South America will be hit in a blind side fashion by the actions of others. The economic downturn could creep worldwide.
As these situations play out around the world the peace keepers of the world will not be watching countries such as Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and most of the Mid East. This can be the events that bring about wars that would never have come about if there was an economic calm around the world. It is time to consider how the powers currently in place must be moved to take the appropriate steps to assure future world order. The fuse has already been lit.
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At the same time the Chinese government is due for a change in guard by the middle of this year. At present its economy has slowed down and many workers have been sent back to the farm until the economy gets back on track. The problem is the economy is strongly based on U.S. and E.U. commerce. Chinese sales to these two areas will fall by a considerable amount in the next eighteen months. This is one of the biggest fears the Chinese government has because the fear of rebellion as it is almost always secretly present. A Failing economy with a GDP falling to three percent, as some have projected, could mean a cataclysmic event is in the making. Such an event would certainly damage almost every economy on the planet.
The U.S. will have not only economic problems but tied to the economy will be the political conflict due to the upcoming elections of November 2012. Politically there will be no problems solved on the home front allowing the economic problems more time to grow and become harder to repair. The part of the political stage that will show up will call for and get defensive trade barriers against Europe and many other countries. This in turn will lead to trade barriers against U.S. products in other countries. Those standing in the wings such as Japan, Russia, India and all of South America will be hit in a blind side fashion by the actions of others. The economic downturn could creep worldwide.
As these situations play out around the world the peace keepers of the world will not be watching countries such as Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and most of the Mid East. This can be the events that bring about wars that would never have come about if there was an economic calm around the world. It is time to consider how the powers currently in place must be moved to take the appropriate steps to assure future world order. The fuse has already been lit.
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Friday, January 13, 2012
If You Do Not Laugh You Will Most Certainly Cry
I learned a long time ago that we must laugh at most things that adversely address us. Most of the incidents that occur to us on a daily basis, in reality, are non starters in the world of problems. It is best to laugh at these things and shrug them off then to take them seriously and have a silly incident or condition ruin your day. This is sort of laughing in the face of adversity yet we do not have to address everything in that fashion. There is enough real hurt and pain to go around for everyone so it seems foolish to allow little things to set us off and put us in a bad mood when they happen. A rude taxi driver or a spilled cup of coffee should not wreck your morning or the day for that matter.
It is better to start off the morning with a laugh and continue to laugh at the small and silly obstructions to your day as your day progresses. If you fail to laugh at each of the little annoyances of the day they grow in the degree of reaction they elicit from us. If we allow everything to bother and annoy us how do we react to the really important negative situations or conditions when they occur? Each negative reaction of the day sets us up for the next negative situation compounding each negative action to become worse than the last. By the end of the day the rude taxi driver which should be laughed off becomes as serious as hearing that someone set fire to your house intentionally.
The best thing to do is to react to each day’s negative situations with a smile or a brief laugh. Go forward with the important elements of your day and reserve the truly bothersome issues to be addressed without the baggage of a days worth of building anger over nothing. If we do not laugh we will eventually cry. That is a guarantee that you can bet on. If we take that as a reality then laughing should be the cure for most of the day’s ills. We should laugh on a daily basis, as much as we can, and leave the truly serious moments to be dealt with by a body and mind that has not frustrated itself with a day of shaking its fist at nothing.
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It is better to start off the morning with a laugh and continue to laugh at the small and silly obstructions to your day as your day progresses. If you fail to laugh at each of the little annoyances of the day they grow in the degree of reaction they elicit from us. If we allow everything to bother and annoy us how do we react to the really important negative situations or conditions when they occur? Each negative reaction of the day sets us up for the next negative situation compounding each negative action to become worse than the last. By the end of the day the rude taxi driver which should be laughed off becomes as serious as hearing that someone set fire to your house intentionally.
The best thing to do is to react to each day’s negative situations with a smile or a brief laugh. Go forward with the important elements of your day and reserve the truly bothersome issues to be addressed without the baggage of a days worth of building anger over nothing. If we do not laugh we will eventually cry. That is a guarantee that you can bet on. If we take that as a reality then laughing should be the cure for most of the day’s ills. We should laugh on a daily basis, as much as we can, and leave the truly serious moments to be dealt with by a body and mind that has not frustrated itself with a day of shaking its fist at nothing.
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
The Cost Of The Weather
I would suggest that most people understand, at some level, there is a cost to weather. I would also suggest the only a very few people really give it any thought. The unfortunate side of that statement is that the weather has quite a bit to do with what we pay for goods and services. There is a cost to weather damage and weather delay concepts which sound simple but are not. These concepts seem short and to the point, but it is not until they are each unraveled do they reveal the full consequences of what the end cost is to each of us.
First let us take the weather damage concept. At first glance there seems to be a cost for direct damage done. The hidden costs of rectifying weather related damage and destruction has to measure all the costs. That means there is a cost for the first telephone call to report the damage to the final payment of a check for the repair work done. In a simple scenario of a tree falling on a car in a storm the authorities must be notified then rescue and support services must be summoned to remove the tree, take care of the injured, and have the car removed for repair or destruction. There are many other things that just compound the costs related to that one incident. The surprise part of this is what was just identified is just part of the costs of that one incident. There can be, and generally are, many more circumstances that will not allow the cost to be compiled for years.
Delays caused by the weather carry a heavy cost as they cut into productivity in almost all circumstances. The cost of people being idled by big delays on the road or in the sky should be enough to make one think how much money they would loose if they were caught up in such a situation. Ships delayed at sea causing sensitive materials to be late to their manufacturing partner’s facilities create tremendous manufacturing cost overruns. Delays similar to this, caused by the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan In 2011, put a number of auto manufacturing lines in the U.S. on hold until the materials arrived. This is a cost that can be enormous. With these thoughts in mind be careful the next tine you wish for snow or rain because you may get what you wished for in spades.
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First let us take the weather damage concept. At first glance there seems to be a cost for direct damage done. The hidden costs of rectifying weather related damage and destruction has to measure all the costs. That means there is a cost for the first telephone call to report the damage to the final payment of a check for the repair work done. In a simple scenario of a tree falling on a car in a storm the authorities must be notified then rescue and support services must be summoned to remove the tree, take care of the injured, and have the car removed for repair or destruction. There are many other things that just compound the costs related to that one incident. The surprise part of this is what was just identified is just part of the costs of that one incident. There can be, and generally are, many more circumstances that will not allow the cost to be compiled for years.
Delays caused by the weather carry a heavy cost as they cut into productivity in almost all circumstances. The cost of people being idled by big delays on the road or in the sky should be enough to make one think how much money they would loose if they were caught up in such a situation. Ships delayed at sea causing sensitive materials to be late to their manufacturing partner’s facilities create tremendous manufacturing cost overruns. Delays similar to this, caused by the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan In 2011, put a number of auto manufacturing lines in the U.S. on hold until the materials arrived. This is a cost that can be enormous. With these thoughts in mind be careful the next tine you wish for snow or rain because you may get what you wished for in spades.
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Friday, January 6, 2012
In This New Year Search For The Power To Be Yourself
The New Year is already six days old and I forgot to mention that we all need to search for our real self as we journey through the next twelve months. By this time more than half of us have broken our New Year resolutions. Most of the other half will do so within the next two weeks. That does not mean you are bad it means that you forgot to ask yourself if you really wanted to make the resolution in the first place. That is the biggest problem we all seem to have. We try to change the way we operate and fail to ask ourselves for permission first. We feel if we say we will commit to something we will stick to it but that does not work if you do not ask yourself if it is really the thing to do.
We all are who we are and change can be wished for but it almost never comes unless we level with ourselves about the things we want. When we make a resolution with out consulting our inner self we are generally doomed to fail. This usually happens when we are trying to make a change we think others will like or will respond to favorably. The reality of the situation is we must level with our inner self at every turn if we want things to have a good chance of turning out. That is simply the power to be your self at every turn. That does sound like an easy thing to do but in reality it is not.
We all knew who and what we wanted to be as children. Unfortunately, the socialization process of growing up tends to make us hide who we are and put on the mask others expect us to be. Each of us must seek the power we have internally because it was the gift we came with. The power to be yourself requires one to discuss with one’s self what is good for you on every condition. If we give ourselves permission to have that discussion every time we need to make a major decision the process becomes easier over time. Eventually you will feel better about your decisions and yourself. Each of us have always had that self partner inside it just takes a little bit of work to reacquaint ourselves.
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We all are who we are and change can be wished for but it almost never comes unless we level with ourselves about the things we want. When we make a resolution with out consulting our inner self we are generally doomed to fail. This usually happens when we are trying to make a change we think others will like or will respond to favorably. The reality of the situation is we must level with our inner self at every turn if we want things to have a good chance of turning out. That is simply the power to be your self at every turn. That does sound like an easy thing to do but in reality it is not.
We all knew who and what we wanted to be as children. Unfortunately, the socialization process of growing up tends to make us hide who we are and put on the mask others expect us to be. Each of us must seek the power we have internally because it was the gift we came with. The power to be yourself requires one to discuss with one’s self what is good for you on every condition. If we give ourselves permission to have that discussion every time we need to make a major decision the process becomes easier over time. Eventually you will feel better about your decisions and yourself. Each of us have always had that self partner inside it just takes a little bit of work to reacquaint ourselves.
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Thursday, January 5, 2012
Gold In The Hand Is No Longer Worth Two In The Bush
Gold has taken a deep plunge over the last six weeks. Those who expect it to bounce back may be in for a big surprise. Enough people were burned with gold over the last several weeks and the rush to buy has gone out of the picture. It is currently trading at about the level it should, and the bubble is gone, at least for the rest of this year. It will pick up later this year but the real rebound will wait until the end of 2013 before it moves up to some of its old trading numbers.
At present the new gold is coal. Coal is having a rough time in the U.S. with the new burning rules but those rules do not apply in the rest of the world. It is the Asian steel mills and power plants where the demand for U.S. coal is highest. The coal we sell abroad is high quality coke coal which provides the highest levels of heat per ton and that is exactly what the Asian countries want it for. Steel production and power plants do best with this high grade product and the demand is ever increasing. The prices are going up but the Asian community will pay the piper to obtain the coal to satisfy their expansion needs and support their present demands. Expect coal to rise about twelve percent over this year and perhaps the same in 2012
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At present the new gold is coal. Coal is having a rough time in the U.S. with the new burning rules but those rules do not apply in the rest of the world. It is the Asian steel mills and power plants where the demand for U.S. coal is highest. The coal we sell abroad is high quality coke coal which provides the highest levels of heat per ton and that is exactly what the Asian countries want it for. Steel production and power plants do best with this high grade product and the demand is ever increasing. The prices are going up but the Asian community will pay the piper to obtain the coal to satisfy their expansion needs and support their present demands. Expect coal to rise about twelve percent over this year and perhaps the same in 2012
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Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Projections On The Price Of Oil In 2012
Oil will be costly for this year. The game playing on pricing has already started. Geopolitical conditions and eruptions tend to be the reasons given for the increase in prices. They are generally the reason given for the rise but the real reason is the market for the oil itself. Brokers or agents, place bets on the future price of oil by buying oil futures or contracts suggesting what they feel the price will be at that future date. As situations come on line the potential for oil to be in short supply, at a particular time, shifts the prices up and the contracts are bought and sold again and again. Each time there is a sale the price generally goes up. The seller makes money and the buyer is hoping to do the same when they sell the contract.
There are no requirements on the buyer or holder of these contracts to take possession of the oil. The holders of the contracts, when they come due, sell the rights to the oil to buyers for the refineries. The price the refineries pay is the price the holder of the paper receives when the contract comes due. If the price of oil is still up there is a profit otherwise the seller takes a loss. This means the price of oil is in the hands of a bunch of gamblers who are just out to make money and could not care one bit as the damage they do all around the world
As for the year 2012 the price of oil will be up all year. Depending on how much turmoil is in the news the higher or lower the price of oil and gas on the street. In the first quarter of this year the price of oil will be up to about $3.92 per gallon of gas and crude at $110.00 per barrel. In the second quarter the price of gas will be about $4.00 per gallon and crude at $116.00 per barrel. The Third quarter will retrace and run about $3.94 per gallon of gas and about $111.00 per barrel. The last quarter of the year will be about $4.00 a gallon of gas and crude at about $115.00 per barrel.
The reasoning behind this projection will be due to turmoil in the Arab countries as they push for change and control of their countries. At the same time there will be other areas of contention such as Israel and Iran and there will be tensions in other areas though they will not be directly related to oil they will have an impact.
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There are no requirements on the buyer or holder of these contracts to take possession of the oil. The holders of the contracts, when they come due, sell the rights to the oil to buyers for the refineries. The price the refineries pay is the price the holder of the paper receives when the contract comes due. If the price of oil is still up there is a profit otherwise the seller takes a loss. This means the price of oil is in the hands of a bunch of gamblers who are just out to make money and could not care one bit as the damage they do all around the world
As for the year 2012 the price of oil will be up all year. Depending on how much turmoil is in the news the higher or lower the price of oil and gas on the street. In the first quarter of this year the price of oil will be up to about $3.92 per gallon of gas and crude at $110.00 per barrel. In the second quarter the price of gas will be about $4.00 per gallon and crude at $116.00 per barrel. The Third quarter will retrace and run about $3.94 per gallon of gas and about $111.00 per barrel. The last quarter of the year will be about $4.00 a gallon of gas and crude at about $115.00 per barrel.
The reasoning behind this projection will be due to turmoil in the Arab countries as they push for change and control of their countries. At the same time there will be other areas of contention such as Israel and Iran and there will be tensions in other areas though they will not be directly related to oil they will have an impact.
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Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Are 2011 Events A Sign Of Things To Come?
2011 was not a great year but it was also not the most awful of years either. There are a few things we can take away from this last year that may shed light on future events. The most profound of these events was the Arab Spring. These separate movements are locked hand in hand as one even though they were originally started as separate events. This movement for democracy and freedom still has a long road ahead of it but the energy seems to be there to keep it alive and moving in the appropriate direction. In 2012 we will see this movement spread and gain even more control over itself with the placement of its leaders in prominent political positions. The movement will spread to other nations in the region and to other areas close to the current states in change mode.
Oil will continue to be a problem for the geopolitical stage as well as the economic stage. Saber rattling by Iran and Syria will be a cause for world concern because the target always turns out to be Israel. There will be a day when the military of Israel will be turned loose on these two countries with devastating results to the involved parties. At the same time the rest of the world will be involved in the destructive aftermath of this occurrence. Aside from the mess and devastation there must be caution that no other nations take sides or there will be a world war. It would start slowly but the signs are there that it will not take long before nations pick sides and put things in motion that will be difficult to reign in.
The signs are there for both of these conditions to come to pass in the next twelve to eighteen months. That does not mean they will come to pass but we can hope that the former does come about and the latter fails to become a reality. As we move forward in this year I will keep a keen eye out for the good and the bad changes and also keep my readers abreast of the upcoming events that are about to happen before they do occur.
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Oil will continue to be a problem for the geopolitical stage as well as the economic stage. Saber rattling by Iran and Syria will be a cause for world concern because the target always turns out to be Israel. There will be a day when the military of Israel will be turned loose on these two countries with devastating results to the involved parties. At the same time the rest of the world will be involved in the destructive aftermath of this occurrence. Aside from the mess and devastation there must be caution that no other nations take sides or there will be a world war. It would start slowly but the signs are there that it will not take long before nations pick sides and put things in motion that will be difficult to reign in.
The signs are there for both of these conditions to come to pass in the next twelve to eighteen months. That does not mean they will come to pass but we can hope that the former does come about and the latter fails to become a reality. As we move forward in this year I will keep a keen eye out for the good and the bad changes and also keep my readers abreast of the upcoming events that are about to happen before they do occur.
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