The United States is in a bind at this time and as a country we need to focus on what must be done to get us back on track. There are three parts to regaining that focus and the three parts are the citizens, the political parties and the administration.

The citizens are complaining about the minor issues, such as the AIG bonuses, while major issues such as getting credit flowing and jobs for those in need do not receive as much heat. The citizens must start to back up the President and let the powers that be play the cards they have in hand.

The political parties are both playing to make themselves look good for their re-election runs. They have shown that they do not care about anything except making points with their constituents and fighting and objecting to their opponents. The time has come for the members of this club do what is correct for the country and at this time it is to show appropriate support for the plans placed on the table by the administration.

As for the administration they must work harder at being transparent and not only telling the people like it is but also what it is and how these problems are going to be resolved. They need to put the pressure on and drive these packages forward.

In the end we all need to be facing in the same general direction working for the good of the country and not for the improvement of any individual's polling feedback.

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There has been much talk as to how much work will come from the newly funded infrastructure work. I do not see the people who want the money and need to get started on the projects moving too quickly. It seems there is still the mentality out there among those in charge of making the projects move forward that things take time. Yes, things do take time but the money was issued in a hurry up mode so the follow on to work should be marching to the same tune. I should already hear the picks and shovels clanging on the so called shovel ready programs. From what I can tell, and what I have heard from good sources, with all that money in hand some of the big players went on vacation to prepare themselves for the long days ahead. The government should find the vacationers and pull the money back until they can be replaced by project managers who believe in immediate boots on the ground and their own long days of dirt and sweat.

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If history has defined anything for us it is that the better off any economy is the lower the crime rate. Crime is on the increase in the U.S. but it is also on the rise every where around the globe. England and most of the European nations have reported a crime increase. Those that have not reported an increase are not fooling anyone because Interpol has shown an increase in shared information and activity even for the nations that have not reported greater crime activity. Even China is having a good deal of increased crime. Most of the activity in China is at night and in the cities. A particular target is foreigners because they are unfamiliar with the surroundings they find themselves in if they are on the street at night.

The U.S. is experiencing much the same problems but foreigners are targeted less in the U.S. Those who prey on the night time traveler tend to be looking for easy targets such as those who have partied too much or even more vulnerable targets such a females traveling alone. Though the increase is across the board the higher spiked crimes are centered in muggings, break-ins, bank robberies and car theft. At this point in time there is not a police official anywhere who does not believe the situation will become more severe. For those who need to be out and about in the evening it is best to do so in a group and never travel as an individual.

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Human rights in China are an issue as well as a severe political problem. The real problem is those outside of China feel free to point out the human rights violations of China but never address human rights in their countries. There are violations in all countries yet we almost never hear of these conditions even when one is in someone else's country. People and governments do not address these issues within the perimeter of their country. In most instances they will not admit such conditions exist even when they know they exist. In many instances the finger is pointed at another country to deflect the attention of others away from the finger pointing perpetrator. There is one great example that we in the U.S. know very well.

For years the U.S. has railed against torture in other countries yet we were caught with our hand in the cookie jar in Iraq. Americans torturing Iraqi citizens when brought to public attention was condemned and ended. The end came only because of the attention heaped upon the situation was a world wide embarrassment. Killing civilians with bombs meant to kill terrorists is called collateral damage. Though the intent of the bombing may be different the end result from a terrorist bomb carries the same collateral damage. Civilians killed over and over again because they happened to be in harms way is still a human rights issue. I also know fully well that these conditions will not go away soon but I also know that pointing the finger at China will not accelerate their correcting of the situation any faster. In addition I know that the country that does not have blood on its hands can call out the names of those who do. I can also assure you that such a list is much shorter than you might think.

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Greed has the potential for turning investor heads as easily as it turns the heads of the so called investment wizards. All too often and too late we find out those heralded as great one day have their feet of clay the exposed the next. The recent scandals which have rocked the financial community consistently point to an industry awash in greed. The media slashes out at these former wizards for their part in destroying the lives of so many investors. Though the acts of the former wizards were deplorable they needed willing participants in the form of clients who were chasing the highest returns they could get. While that posture is the appropriate investment strategy for anyone in the game the investors in these scams have showed they share some of the same greed tendencies as the wizards they invested with.

Investing to receive the highest rewards is part of the responsibility each investor has to their plan and long term program. There is however the risk factor. Exploring the returns on investments should demonstrate signs of possible higher than normal risk averages when the investment vehicle consistently outstrips even the better than average performance on the street. It is the greed of the investor which tends to force the individual to have a blind eye toward what would be generally viewed as suspect. When the individual investor first bought into these bogus investments there is little reason to hold them accountable on the basis of greed, but in the long run when performance is so out of line with reality the greed response of the investor takes over. That response is perhaps human nature, as everyone wishes to stay with a winner, but it is the willingness of the investor to turn off the little voice inside their head that says this is too good to be true that is the problem. At that point their greed is no different than the wizard's greed.

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Today is a party day and I intend to keep it that way. To that end I will write nothing this day that may cause anyone to ponder anything other than the joy of the day. As tradition would have it later this afternoon I will take a bottle and mark the label with my ring. Then before I take my first drink I shall say "I shall drink to here and then no more". This is a method of enjoying the party to the fullest yet not going too far. With peace and safety enjoy the day.

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And now we are on to the weather. We have been discussing some serious situations over the last several weeks. Here is a new situation which is disguised as a weather forecast. It is a weather forecast but it also has the potential for a serious condition.

Starting in April there will be rain in heavy doses in the north east and in the south east. The mid section of the country will get plenty of rain but the severe tornadoes will expand their traditional territories. Look out Chicago, New York, New Jersey, and most of New England. These severe storms will start out small and build rapidly to a deadly force. It would be wise for everyone to prepare for these storms and be mindful of the weather especially when on the water.

This May will start off cold and will field the residual storms of the season at a normal pace. Mid May will see the nation start to heat up as if it were mid to late June. This will be all over the country. The heat wave will be extreme in the south and south west with less severe temperatures in the west, mid-west and the north east. The heat will continue in the off and on heating sequence through the middle of August for the latter areas. The balance of the summer will be above average with little rain until the beginning of October. With all this happening everyone must be mindful of the quickly changing conditions from day to day.

I believe there is going to appear a new phenomenon in the weather world which I am at this time calling ghost storms. These storms will develop in a heart beat with out any reason or warning and they will do their damage and then disappear as if they never existed. They will be difficult to trace and impossible to predict. It is time to be mindful of your surroundings and the weather at all times when on the outside.

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There are three things the government needs to do to get the economy back on a road to recovery. The three things are jobs, jobs and then more jobs. Sure there are all kinds of technical problems to correct. These problems can almost correct themselves if the people have confidence in the system. The problem is when people are out of work they do not have money to spend and money that churns is the grease that makes the wheels of prosperity turn. Recessions have a great many proper terms and technical gates, cycles and patterns but trying to fix these things with their proper names, that seem to be broken, is less effective than just coming up with work for people out of work.

Jobs define the confidence people exude when they are employed. If the employment is going to be steady they feel confident in taking risk. They will buy the new car or flat screen TV. They will go out to dinner and even buy new cloths. Giving that unemployed person a job gives the individual confidence. If enough people get confidence the problematic proper term conditions, which everyone is trying to fix, will find a way to become more flexible and become whole again. It is not a miracle it is just the way things work.

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Today the French and the Germans made known that they were going to go in different economic correcting directions than the U.S. until the present crisis is over. That is not what the U.S. wanted to hear. These statements will make the meeting of the twenty nations this weekend divisive to say the least. The German chancellor stated that the U.S. was so pessimistic about a successful outcome to the crisis she did not think the U.S. believed in its own plan. These are harsh but understandable words from two nations the U.S. wishes to work with on an economic basis to resolve this world dilemma. At the same time the U.S. has no one but itself to blame for the confusion over the recovery plan. The U.S. has to take the hit for this one.

There are three parties in error here. The Democrats with their earmarks have sent the wrong message to U.S. citizens and to the other countries around the world. The total negative posture of the Republican side of this government has caused the world to question the willingness of the American government to accomplish the task at hand. The third party in error is the President himself. In his effort to try to bring both sides together he has played a weak hand. There is no reason he cannot tell both sides of the isle that earmarks must go and are never to be seen again in his administration. If they do appear he can take his issue directly to the people and let them speak directly to the offenders. If he does not do this soon the rest of his administration will be more of the same and he will have lost control.

In addition the President must also speak to the people in Congress and the Senate about their quibbling and political infighting over the direction of the government plan to engineer a recovery. The President needs to go directly to the people and tell them to write their Congressman and Senators on both sides of the isle and make it clear that the dierction the President has chosen will be the course of action taken until the people say differently. If the President can find the courage to do this he will have a shot at a second term. If he fails to show his strength he will have just one failed term and will also have proven the German chancellor and much of the rest of the world correct.

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The stock market is not ready to truly rebound yet. That low 6200 Dow number has to be retested at least one more time to be sure we have found a bottom. As of this writing the Dow has jumped 1000 points in a few days. The move up was too fast and without good reason. For the average investor the smart move is to stay liquid and wait for a few weeks. The bottom of a market is never found until the lows of the Dow are tested at least twice and fail to drop bellow the floor number set. The problem in the retesting is that the current floor number may not be the bottom. There are projections showing the Dow down as low as 5200. That would be a thousand points lower than the current retest point. When the Dow numbers fall again, and they will, all we can hope for is the resistance remains above the 6200 mark and then we bounce again. That would be the time to consider investing once again for the long term.

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With the Obama Presidency in place the demographics of just who can reach the top has changed. Several months ago the answer to this question was up for grabs. The election changed the answer to that question as long as you are not from an ethnic or religious group which is out of favor. With the exception of the Islamic population and several minor religious groups everyone, as of now, has a better chance at making it to the top than they had five months ago. The gate that was lifted with the Obama win changed the rules. Those rules now indicate, if you are smart enough to move to that level, you will probably get a fair shot at being elected. A Latino or a female will most likely be elected within the next few election cycles. Perhaps, we will see both elected in that period of time. But there are those who will not get the shot because of the American fear of those who are defined as too different in ideology. Simply put, if an individual is part of the Islamic community they need not apply. The fear that we may elect a terrorist or perhaps a non-Christian, in our so called Christian environment, will keep the election of a person with Arab or Islamic heritage at bay. In the end that means that almost anyone can reach the top but it will be a long time before we can use the word anyone and truly mean it one hundred percent.

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An honest to good fork in the road is facing President Obama as he is about to sign off the budget with a significant number of earmarks in place. He campaigned against earmarks stating that he would not allow them and now looking at a budget almost ready for signing with more earmarks in it than you could shake a stick at. This is not a point in time for the President to back down from his campaign promise about no earmarks. Even if there are some good earmarks in the package to keep the faith he must refuse to sign the budget until the earmarks are removed. If he fails to do so, with only some fifty odd days in office, he will look weak and be portrayed as a liar. Yet, the real problem he will have is the loss of faith the American People have in him. This is a big fork in the road and it must be handled carefully. By saying no to the earmarks now the President will show his toughness, his resolve, as well as maintain the integrity he has with the citizens of this country. To do any less will cost him credibility at a time when he can ill afford such a loss. The best move is to send the budget back until the earmarks are removed and then sign the bill.

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I thought I would be appropriate to write about a little something for us all to think about. Less than a year ago Dubai, which is a dot size piece of land on the world map, was in the process of buying up big pieces of the business world. It is a country of little restrictive law which used that leverage to attract some of the richest people in the world to come and invest in the creation of their new world of high rise and anything goes Dubai. Their laws would allow for even the most outlandish of structures to be built with out the restrictions found in most of the worlds biggest cities. If there was a law against something and it restricted a billionaire from creating a dream building the law would be changed or adjusted to meet the individual's needs. It is strange that the business world was holding this government and its leaders out as visionaries. In fact these leaders were using the government and its power to create huge personal agreements worth ever so much to each of them. They seemed invincible at that time but it only took one year from that point for their world to fall on hard times. What they did was not against their law so they broke no rules. The outcome does show that there was no moral compass in Dubai and in the long run that is the international code we are all supposed to live by. It seems they never got the memo.

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Stem Cell Research has crossed a new threshold in science. About two years ago a Japanese team of researchers came up with a new approach for stem cell recovery. Instead of using embryonic stem cells they found a way of identifying specialized cells that can be reverted from their present level back to a level where they can function as stem cells. The process requires finding the appropriate specialized cell that can be manipulated, by turning off the genes that make it a specialized cell, and have it revert to a stem cell like condition. When this condition is reached the cell can be manipulated by turning on selected genes which allow it to function as a different type of specialized cell. This means, in theory, a liver cell can be adjusted to function as a kidney cell. The bottom line here is simply as this research moves forward the need and use of embryonic stem cells will fade in favor of this new and more politically and ethically acceptable medical research.

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Please excuse the pun I could not help my self. The Green Revolution will be tilting at windmills unless there is a substantial infusion of incentive cash provided by the government. With out incentives there will be few people who will spring for the cost of adding solar energy to their home or putting a small windmill within their community. The cost to the individual will be too much. The government has the opportunity to change that vision. They need to provide an incentive basis in the form of tax breaks and paybacks as well as providing some of the banking incentives to allow for the individual to go solar or green. We can beat the energy crunch and the associated costs of energy but only if the government sets a plan of incentives in place to help ease the momentum to green power. If the government fails to act the energy sphere of influence will remain in the hands of a rich few and no matter what the individual does they will be tilting at windmills.

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I have been quiet for the first four days of March just listening to what is going on all around the world. I have watched the parade of news casters speaking in almost breathless gasps of the newest breaking news. It was news the public needed to know as soon as it became available. That may be their beliefs but from my prospective the information they presented, over the last several days, was information I have provided via the Red Dragon over the last two to three months. This leads me to question how Red Dragon readers incorporate the information I provide from day to day and how they react to that same information when they hear it on the television weeks later? The information I provide is always identified as speculative when I do not know the information as a fact. But here are several of the items the media has discussed over the last week as opposed to the same information I provided months and weeks ago. Here are just a few of the items you may wish to go to the Red Dragon archives and re-read the information.

* Global GDP going down.
* We will feel the recovery in the early part or 2010.
* The problems of unrest in China.
* How China is attempting to solve its monetary problems.
* Bankruptcy as the better alternative to saving the three U.S. automakers.
* Oil going back up.
* Going green and what it will take.


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