Most of the stock market is or has been down by fifty percent from its all time high just one year ago. Money in the market is considered invested money and a most appropriate form of engaging in creating wealth for the individual. If we look at taking a monitory risk for gain by betting on a horse or buying a lottery ticket as a vice why then are financial risk taking activities not considered in the same categories? Betting on the stock market is just as much a gamble these days as buying a lottery ticket. My question today is why is participation in the stock market not considered a vice as are the other forms of gambling?

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At some level every person alive must be aware of the blight of hunger. It kills more people each year than any disease. As Americans we celebrate every year on Thanksgiving Day our gratefulness for the bounty on our tables. Many people help to feed the hungry on that day having offered food and money at collection tables situated outside the grocery stores we patronize. That is a fine gesture and in general it is from the heart. It is also an easy way of turning a blind eye to the troubled around us. There are many in need and in these economic times the numbers are even greater. And that is only in this country.

There is hunger all around the world yet how do we help others in foreign lands if we have failed to effectively help our own. The pains and indignities of hunger are the same allover the world. It is a world class condition that over time creates world class destruction of the societies and cultures surrounding it. We know that giving propagates a positive result however; giving does not always solve the problem. Giving cannot make repressive social issues go away. It cannot make a country assure its people are being fed.

Thanksgiving must go beyond those being cared for at the table of bounty. World Hunger needs to be declared illegal in every country of the world. Hunger must become the profound and primary issue for resolution in each and every country. We can then make the leaders of the countries who use hunger as a political tool responsible to the World Court.

I wish a wonderful and bountiful Thanksgiving Day to all of you.

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Everyone wants a turn at the Fed window so they can plead their case of poverty and hopefully leave the window with a no strings attached lump of cash. As good little con men they genuflect and promise to follow the rules and use the money to save jobs and make life better for others. The problem is that after a month of handing out billions of dollars those on the receiving end are not doing as they promised. Relative to saving jobs and making life better for others they have helped no one except themselves. Because they have gotten away with these actions the free money window at the Fed is starting to queue up with every imagined greedy hand pleading for money to save their company and the world.

The perfect example of this queue was the (Auto Club Meets Congress) meeting of last week. The audacity of these individuals to come for monetary assistance, as near belly up companies, arriving in their private corporate jets with a pretend hat in hand attitude but also failing to supply a plan as to how they will change the business model of their companies. Without a fully articulated plan it would seem, no matter what they say, we cannot believe them. A solid plan and strict structures and rules for accomplishing the goals of the plan must be in place before any money can be provided. The absence of such a plan indicates the business model and activity of the big three will remain much the same as they have been for the last twenty years.

The big three club are just the show piece of the problem. The word is now out on the street. If you need money for anything just say your business is in need and if the government will write a check your need will be fulfilled and you can go forward and save the world. As soon as the request is made these companies are publicly announced. When they receive the agreement for assistance CNBC will quickly tell the world that the taxpayer monetary redemption fund has acted again and will save the world, and the stock market can gain four hundred points for a few hours.

The time has come to close the window on these greedy individuals and companies and force bankruptcy upon them. If they do not want bankruptcy as a way out then they must figure the way out of the fly bottle on their own.

If you think about what I have said you know I am on the right track so let me hear from you with your thoughts and opinions.

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Banks are taking money from the federal government and using it for everything but making loans to consumers and businesses. Several years ago the banking industry coerced Congress to approve the removal of usury laws as we used to know them. The old laws made interest on a loan of more than 25% annually a crime. The banks and their credit card divisions in particular pushed to have the law changed. Now a 32% annual rate is still on this side of a criminal act. The average credit card has an annual interest rate of 27%. Consumers and businesses are having a hard time getting loans because the banks have severely tightened their standards for making loans. These new standards allow them to hold the money, which was to be used to ease the credit crisis, in their own coffers and use the money for their own private greedy purposes. Greedy purposes such as buying up smaller banks which will assist them in expanding their business footprint and substantially growing their profit and overall fortunes. The problem as I see it is they are using government supplied money, which is taxpayer money, to build their future growth and fortunes using trumped up excuses and standards to keep the money from going to the destinations it was originally intended for. It is time for the government to go in and change the rules and either force them to make loans or force them to return the money they have received.

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This recession will most likely be worse than any recession since the 1930's. Both the duration and the percent of unemployed will surpass the forecasts currently on the board. And that will only be a part of the economic turmoil for the next twenty four to thirty months. We are in a recession now and at the minimum it will last another eighteen months. If eighteen months is an accurate number than the feel of the recession will remain with us for an additional twelve months after it is technically over. If the technical recession lasts more than eighteen months then we are looking at a minimum of three years before we feel any sort of a true recovery on Main Street.

* - Expect unemployment to reach 8.5% as presented in the government reports. The real number will be some where around 14% or even higher if the U6 report is released. I will be writing more about the U6 report in a few days.

* - Unemployment benefits will probably be extended several more increments to a total of eighteen months. It is currently at 39 weeks or nine months.

* - GDP for the four quarters of 2009 will each run a negative 3% or 4% and that will roll into 2010 with the first two quarters at negative 2% and 1% for the first two quarters respectively.

* - Inflation will start to track up in 2009 with 4% for the last two quarters of the year. It will then kick up to 5% and 6% for the four quarters of 2010.

The question of the day is: What will the government do to correct these conditions and what role must Joe on Main Street play in getting things back on track?


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November 22, 1963 was a sad day in American history. Aside from the fact that the assassination of an American President was not an every day occurrence the day was sad on many levels. As I look back each year at this date I remember what was wrong about the day but also what was so appropriate about the way the American people faced the situation. At first there was disbelief and then a stunning realization of what had occurred. Coupled with the disbelief over the event a silence came over the entire country. Famalies gathered to hear the news as the information about the assassination was disclosed. The same information was continuously played over and over again on the TV until the burial.

Though people despaired they also were aware there was a new President and he was already on the job. That eased the fear that the Russians would take advantage of the situation. It also provided continuity of government and the American political process. Those dark days in November 1963 tested the courage and strength of the American people and they passed the test. By the end of the year life moved on and the memory of those nightmarish days slowly retreated to the back of mind. The retreated memory comes back to life once each year when those who lived through the event remember the moment and mentally genuflect as remembrance to a President lost and those dark days In November 1963.

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I have been gone for a few days but now that I am back I would like to pose a question for everyone. However I will not ask the question until you read the reason I am asking the question.

A week ago I was getting ready to go on a trip that would take me out of the area for several days. So before I went away I decided to go shopping for food for a local pantry I help support. Because Thanksgiving is coming I decided to be sure there was extra food as more of the needy appear around the holidays. I have been doing this for thirty years and I usually do a food run once a month. So as I finished up in the store all was going well. I loaded my car's trunk with the food and made off to the pantry.

As I drove up to the pantry I looked at the entrance door. The pantry is located at the back of a church rectory and through the door's window I saw a woman looking out at me. It was not a face I recognized. As I came to the entrance I tried the handle but the door was locked. I assumed that there were new people watching over and helping in the pantry and they had the door locked for what they believed was their protection. I then knocked on the door and received no response. I knocked several more times until I received a response. A man came to the door followed by the woman I had seen at the door window. The man said "This pantry is only for the needy". The comment took me back and angered me at the same time. I said through the door "I have come to donate food". "I was just coming to let you know that my car trunk is full so you could make room to sort the items out". The man's face changed a bit and he reluctantly opened the door. The woman said to me "What is the group name this donation comes from"? I responded "it comes from me". The man then said "You should have put the food in the bins outside". I replied "The bins will not hold all of the food". The Woman then asked "What is your name for the register?" "I just go by Alan" I replied. The name caused her to understand who I was. She then tugged on the man's sleeve and nodded her head indicating that I was OK.

After I had unloaded the food and was ready to go I looked at the two of them and said "Your approach to me as I came to the door was quite offensive". "You saw me neatly dressed and driving a new car and made certain assumptions before you even spoke to me". "Please tell me who you think you are to decide who is and who is not needy?" They had no response but just looked at me. With out a response I turned then abruptly got in my car and drove off.

My question to everyone out there is this: Was I correct being upset with these people and was not my question to them deserving of an answer? Please let me know what you think.

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I have listened to people talk about the war in Iraq from the beginning. It seems strange that we go into a country with guns, tanks, and bombs and create all kinds of mayhem and then cannot understand why the people of Iraq want us to go. The war that we perpetrated on them was not liberation it was just an exchange of the iron fist of power that they are under. We speak about fighting terrorists in Iraq but most of the population is not fighting U.S. troops the bad guys are mostly people from outside the country. The Iraqis who live there are more often than not caught in the cross hairs of the two warring entities.

It is impossible for us to shoot the bad guys and not take innocent bystanders out also. Under these circumstances it is impossible to win the hearts and minds of the people. To be kind and gentle in this theater of war is dangerous to our troops and provides openings to the terrorists to take advantage of U.S. soft targets and draw retaliation which will surely inflict pain and injury on innocent citizens.

The people we should be hard with in Iraq are the Iraqi military and police. These two groups need to get up to speed and handle the bad guys in their own back yard. We can stay for support and assistance but not for long. The time has come to move our troops to Afghanistan and do some major damage to the tribal areas near the Pakistani border. It is time to let all those who remain in the areas of conflict know that they will be considered combatants and will receive the same treatment as the terrorists who are hiding among them.

We have reached that moment and come to the end of the road and it is time we end the policy of hearts and mind capture and go for a bold and decisive campaign to do more than bloody a nose or two. Such actions would quickly bring us to the point where we can just walk away and, if we do it properly, almost all of those who we were fighting us will spend the next ten years killing each other off trying to establish their individual thrones of power. They will say they drove us out and promise revenge but if we make our strikes on them terrible enough when we walk away they know we will come back in a stronger fashion if they give us a reason. And that will strike fear in their hearts and make them think twice about revenge.

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Before we can once again grow as a nation we must find a way to use every building, factory, able worker, and machine to their fullest. If we accomplish such a feat we will be able to grow with new equipment, new skills, new techniques, and new concepts in both business and manufacturing. The goal must be to enable every American worker to perform their job faster and produce more than any foreign competitor can. Most everyone laughs at that concept but I can assure anyone who chooses to challenge the validity of the statement they need only contact me for a more effective demonstration. I was against the shipping of manufacturing over seas as well as the outsourcing of white collar jobs. There was no need to do so but there was greed and the desire for instant bottom line growth and accelerated monetary gratification.

Now we need a new wave of "we can do it" American entrepreneurs who will see an empty building and envision a start up. Take the old machinery and equipment and rework the machines and dies that used to make one item at a time so they can now make ten. As we design new products and develop the process for making them nothing should ever be produced as a one at a time item again. If we can increase the productivity of every item produced every eighteen months we can cut the cost of the labor per unit providing a price that cannot be matched by anyone else. Once we get that part of our operations synchronized we develop the next generations of products and machines. Then we sell the old technology and equipment to other countries as our new systems, machines and products become activated.

All this may sound as if it is a little too simplified but I assure you the process is simple because it is all in the mind. Americans have, to some degree, stopped thinking like the Americans of old who set out to build things and make them big, and grow, and be the best in the world at whatever they do. Now everyone wants to be a financial specialist. Perhaps we should all remember that the American middle class was built on manufacturing and as the manufacturing was shipped out the middle class started to shrink. For the white collar worker that was fine because that loss did not hurt their position in life. But then one day the jobs of the white collar worker started to move out of the country. Then it was not so fine. For many white collar workers were downsized and no longer had a place in the work force. Their well honed job skills were no longer needed. If they were lucky enough to find a direct replacement job it almost always paid less with fewer, if any, benefits. If we do not bring back a wave of American productivity matched with a sincere effort to rebuild a super manufacturing environment the day will come when even the financial specialists will be relocated out side the country. But then again they will never think it can happen to them.

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The fear has been that Moslem terrorists would find a nuclear weapon and use it against the U.S. They have never had to look very far as Pakistan has had them for some time. The funny thing is the Moslem political world does not think of the Pakistani weapons as Moslem. Recently an Arab ambassador commented that the U.S. did not want Iran to have nuclear weapons because then there would be a Moslem bomb. That comment made the western recipients pause and then shake their respective heads in disbelief. This was a scary comment because there was an unspoken element within the comment itself. The ambassador's words indicated there is covert support of an Iranian nuclear bomb in the non-Iranian Moslem world. This growing support is one of the major reasons the Israelis have again pulled back on the talks with the Palestinians.

Because of these behind the scene events the U.S. has now openly stated that there will be no peace agreement by the end of the Bush administration. There are some who speculate that the covert support of an Iranian bomb is perhaps more structured than was first considered. It is now believed the main goal of the supporters is to buy time for the Iranians to significantly enhance their processes and development structures. There are also other potential players in the game. China has many agreements with Iran on oil and providing them with material assistance as part of their expanded trade agreements.

At this point in time the U.S. has not pointed its finger at any country either openly or in secret. When the fingers are eventually pointed watch those identified and the degree of denial that each country uses to deflect the accusation. The phrase "thou dust protest too much" will shed light on the culprits to the degree to which they have participated.

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This year a lot of eight year old children voted for President. Though the votes did not count they were as important as the votes that did. It was not just a single school that did this there were many schools all across the country. In many places our educational system seemed to finally realize that just telling children about an election was not nearly as exciting to them as becoming a participant. The teachers acted like T.V. anchors providing insight to both sides of the issues and the candidates.

What was really great is the kids took this information home with them and then received a different political offering from their parents. Imagine eight year olds confused by the diametrically opposed political opinions and beliefs of their parents. I am sure they all took a big step into adulthood as they wrestled with the information and views presented to them. But the real big step is they entered into the most basic workings of the political and electoral process which in turn has created a glimmering awareness that they indeed are also citizens.

This is the way to develop a participating citizenry that cares what is going on and can best decide who our future leaders should be and what they should be working on. Voting is not just a right it is one of the most important acts a citizen must perform. Voting is a practice that needs practice. To that end the best thing in the world that could happen has happened because all these schools and children have started practicing early.

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To ridicule the beliefs of another individual is more than just wrong it is a criminal act within the realm of humanity. We all tend to feel the path we have chosen is the correct one. Unfortunately there are many who feel that their ways and beliefs are absolutely the only way. And anyone who believes other than their way is wrong and summarily doomed in one fashion or another. The use of prayer wheels and candles or utterances of a song or even music in a house of worship are to some considered forms of deranged activity. Those who ridicule feel there is no place for these activities in their worship and therefore are to be openly condemned. All I can say is how sad for those individuals.

Candles give image to the shadows in the darkness and act as a torch to those of faith who peer into the darkness with hope of what is to be and remembrance of what has already come. Prayer wheels are nothing more than a different version of the prayers on paper that are read by the faithful every Sabbath and holy day. There are those who are condemned for creating their own prayers which have not been sanctioned by the leaders of their faith. The list can go on and on and the only common thread is that all who use this form of condemnation and separation are guilty of the same act of ignorance. Their intolerance of others who seek God in a different way only shows that they have failed in their relationship with their own faith. Then again, perhaps that is also an act of ignorance.

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The more we get involved in conflict around the globe the less control we have over the rest of the world. The more we spread our power around the globe both our security and our ability to protect ourselves is inversely proportional to that demonstration of global power. There are two reasons for this condition the first reason is that our power is not infinite nor is the treasure we use to support it. The second reason is simply the more we annoy our neighbor the greater the number of people that become disenchanted with us. The problem is that we are the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room and the rest of the world sees that.

Our problem is we, as citizens of this world power, do not see a gorilla but a mere monkey with only good intentions. However, if we look closely we can see that our government has worked its smoke and mirrors on us. To make the gorilla look small the smoke screen calls people we do not like terrorists. In addition the government changed the laws to take away some of our rights in the name of greater national security. As a country we did that in the late 1940's and early 1950's in the name of protection from communism. If you know your history you know that did not work out too well. It is time to clear our eyes and get rid of the smoke because the more rights we give up the less security we will have not only from those on the outside but also from those on the inside. Look for the gorilla the next time you are told the government is cutting back your rights to provide you with greater security. You will know when you finally see the eight hundred gorilla because your blood will run cold. Just remember to start looking immediatly because if you do not see that gorilla soon enough, for you, it may be too late.

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The first order in any recovery plan is the creation of jobs. Jobs are the heart and soul of the American ideal. When a person has a job they can stand up and be counted because they are someone. People without a job do not feel they measure up and are less likely to be counted or counted on. The loss of jobs in this country has been the work of the government and the barons of industry. When competition came to their front door the first thing they did was to look for cheaper labor. In most instances it was easier to outsource than it was to figure out how to be so productive that their factory could beat any foreign competition. They gave up and took the easy way out. I do not have to belabor this point because almost all of you know it is true.

The question then becomes how is this mess turned around with all the problems at hand as well as those potentially menacing from the wings? The answer is simple. Create real jobs and challenge the American people to pick up the challenge and take back their position in the world. It will take cash but if they can give to Wall Street they can give to Main Street.

The first step is to create programs and jobs redeveloping our national infrastructure in a totally green concept. As we put people back to work we can address healthcare with coverage for everyone. With more people working it will be easier to move all coverage to individual or family coverage with an insurance premium system similar to the one used by the companies that provide auto coverage. This program would include a risk pool requiring participation of all companies to assure that even those who are severely ill can apply and receive affordable coverage.

The energy project will start off at the same time as the infrastructure because our energy infrastructure is in a bad way and needs to be expanded and upgraded. This program will also kick off the development of alternate resources of energy and a comprehensive program for energy conservation. Incentives provided by the project will drive the development of new energy creating products that can and will be sold world wide.

New wave productivity incentives for U.S. home based industries to become competitive with anyone in the world will be a program to beat the competition. The challenge is to figure out how to make one American worker more productive than fifty of any other countries workers. If we can learn to make so much with so few people than we can take back the markets lost over the last twenty years. This approach will put every person who is out of work but wants to work into a job. At the same time a program such as this will bring new life to our middle class.

If you think this cannot be done you are wrong. We can do this with just the help of our government. We need the people we elect to go for the plan that will turn us around and allow America to fight at home to raise the life standard level of every citizen. Then and only then can we re-establish our moral compass and lead the world with real leadership not war.

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Fear is a primal signaling system embedded in our reptilian brain and is responsible for the survival of many species. It was and still is the internal signal which identifies the presence of a dangerous and or threatening condition confronting or about to confront the individual. Though the jungle and dangers of millions of years ago have changed the sense of fear today's individual feels still rings the same internalized emotional bell. The form of danger gripping many right now is the potential loss of savings for retirement and or perhaps the loss of a job.

Even the most capable of us sense this fear on a day to day basis as the news of each day erodes the individual's confidence and replaces that erosion with greater degrees of fear. Up to now the fear has not paralyzed the average citizen but that condition is generally only an arms length away. When F.D.R. became president in the great depression he told America that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. He was more correct than most might believe. Fear strips the individual of self confidence and sometimes that is all we have.

This is the time for everyone to stand up to their fear and spit in its eye and dare it to take them down. Screw up your courage and reinforce your self confidence and be ready to take action against what ever is thrown at you. Just to survive is winning, but it is more than that, it gives the individual the base from which to restart their growth.

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